SAI Weekly 36 - 24: Viva La France!, Tesla CyberCab, Reuters Automotive Detroit

Back in Paris for the Motor show after having visited just a couple months back with the family. Staying in a different part of town, one closer to the conference venue. Enjoying my time here. MAN. I do miss living in the big cities. At least when I visit them I do. Spending so much time in Asia, it would be great to swap a few months of living in a major European city. Maybe some day…

I have a bit of Paris envy if I am being honest. The weather has been great – a bit overcast but the temperature has been perfect for long walks, and I’ve done A LOT of those.

It’s also so encouraging to see so many people on bicycles. Something that is a strong character trait for Paris. I wish the US, Detroit in particular also prioritized bicycling as a valid mode of transport for its citizens. I am going to try to influence some of Detroit’s new policies – one major positive for my hometown is the Joe Louis Greenway, a 27.5 mile circle around the city that hits almost every neighborhood and is similar to NYC’s High Line that will include walking and bike paths and will give non-car folks an alternative way of getting around the city.

This week is going to be ALL about the Paris Motor Show. And it’s going to be very picture heavy. With a couple videos.

First though, thanks Ruth for inviting to the McKinsey dinner last night. Here is the subject of the evening and here’s the view.

Next week I’ll be moderating some discussions at the Reuters Automotive USA 2024. This is the first time I’ll be doing this and I know they want to experiment with some new, more interactive formats so it seems I may be the guinea pig for that.

For those that plan to attend, if you see me stop me to say Hi.

BIGGEST NEWS THIS WEEK

My initial impressions of the show. Europe isn’t dead. Far from it. There’s a BIG, humongous asterisk (*) with that statement though. Stellantis and Volkswagen are in a bad way. Stellantis in the US with their product strategy and inventory problems, because they are effectively a bit player in China. Volkswagen because they can’t seem to find a bottom for Audi, Porsche and Volkswagen brands in China. Steep losses. And a big fight with the union on Germany too.

One BIG reason for coming to the Paris Motor Show – I am not super familiar with the French brands. The only recollection I have of Renault is that my friend had one in high school and it was terrible. I knew it was terrible even when I was 15 years old so my impression of the brand has been lasting. And is now changed.

In China (or the US), you don’t often see Renaults, Citroën or Peugeots so I have very little experience driving them myself. I am aiming to change that. I won’t have time to drive them this time around but I will in the near future and I’ll be back to do that.

If I erase any memory of the Shanghai / Beijing Auto shows, then I am fairly impressed with the Paris Motor show. Not as impressed as I was with IAA Munich but day 1 (I consider media day day 0) of the show, it was packed. My initial thought – aren’t these kids supposed to be in school!?!

For those deep in the car nerd hole, I’ll also try to post all the videos from the media events I attended on a what will soon to be newly launched Sino Auto Insights YouTube channel so stay tuned for more details on that.

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Home team - France

Renault Pride: Let’s get to the red meat though. Renault came out punching. They have one of the biggest (if not biggest) booths at the show. Renault brands had their media events stacked so that you could just walk from the Renault booth to the Dacia booth then to the Alpine Booth and then the Mobilize booth. Luca came out confident and easy talking. Left very impressed with Luca.

The Renault booth was heavily trafficked and lots of folks were queuing to have their opportunity to sit inside the 4 & 5, historic nameplates from Renault that had their EV version debuts at the show. To get an idea of how crowded, see the video below – There are subtle reminders that we’re in France – All the way down to Daft Punk playing in the background as mood music. With American Julian Casablancas on vocals on this collab, of course. I also was swept up in the excitement and bought a die cast model 5 for my collection.

By the time the media events were over on Monday, I needed to leave for a meeting thinking that I could come back yesterday and would have a chance to slowly walk through the entire show, take pics, sit in cars and get a feel for them. I completely underestimated the crowds that would attend the first day open to the public.

Thing is, I always take lots of pics and videos at these events but don’t end up posting them so I’ll do better this time around.

The Americans

Ford’s

Ford had the fortune of being across from the XPeng booth so theirs was sorta crowded with most people wanting to have a look at the Capri and the Explorer. They also had a adjacent booth highlighting their Ford Pro products, mainly the transit. Overheard at the Ford stand while I was waiting to check out the Capri – “Ford Lemon,” but I think that was mostly due to the color.

Capri EV

I now know why Ford doesn’t want to export that Explorer to the US. By American standards, it’s tiny. If I had to guess it’s closer in size to an Escape than it is an American Explorer. How this plays out in Europe is anyone’s guess but Explorers and larger type vehicles just don’t play well on many European streets. It’s not bad looking though.

Ford Explorer

Cadillac

Pleasantly surprised here. Cadillac has recently entered the Swiss, French, Swedish and German markets. And had a good turnout for its media event – the next day the booth had surprisingly good traffic. As GM loses in China, the European market seems to get more important by the day.

What else the General has cooking in Europe will likely reveal itself over the next few years as they evaluate feedback on the Cadillac Lyriq and Optiq. The Optiq, although outmatched in China could find a decent number of buyers in Europe. It’s not too tech forward and from the booth traffic, Cadillac has some brand awareness in Europe still.

As part of the media intro, they leaned into Cadillac being named after a French explorer and Detroit being a French word meaning ‘strait.’ Let’s see if that association ultimately helps them. I am rooting for Cadillac so I hope both vehicles are well-received.

Hopeful for Cadillac – I know I beat GM up but it’s because deep down, I want them to be one of the winners. The foot traffic at their booth makes me think that if they can market the Lyriq and Optiq properly they could ‘re-enter’ Europe successfully.

The Chinese

The attendees: BYD, XPeng, Hongqi, GAC, Leapmotor, Forthing, Maxus, Skyworth

XPeng and BYD had the most active Chinese booths although the Aito media event was well attended, but more on them a bit later.

Xpeng revealed its P7+ to a European audience for sale in the China market. They received 30K orders within 2 hours of showing it off.

I could see the P7+ & G6 doing pretty well in the EU markets with aggressive pricing, especially since He Xiaopeng said he’d maintain pricing despite the tariffs – that means they’ve likely forecasted a cost down glidepath that can maintain profitability despite eating large chunks of the tariff. One way they’re doing this is by having one of the (I think he said THE largest) 16K ton gigapress stamping the chassis.

An item of note at the Leapmotor media event was that Tavares spoke about the importance of the Leapmotor partnership. A speech like that would NOT be welcome in the US as he’s mostly being blamed for the inventory, pricing and employment issues Stellantis has in that market.

Another item of note. Although Aito’s booth was huge and the media event well attended, they have no current plans to enter Europe, so this booth seems like a FOMO and / or study about European’s feelings towards Chinese brands. From the warm reception they received I think Europeans aren’t that phased that Aito and others are Chinese companies. That said, there was NO MENTION that their HW / SW stack is brought to you by non other than Huawei. That may have raised a few eyeballs.

Their big stunt was driving a bunch of Aito’s 15K km from Chongqing to Paris over 38 days. Oh, and found out what Aito stands for: Add Intelligence to Auto.

Now, Hongqi - let’s just say they used the China script for media events at auto shows. They had a HUGE I ❤️ Hongqi sign in front. They got all the higher ups on stage to in unison say “I ❤️ Hongqi” and finally they handed a key to the first Hongqi in France to its owner. Who also said, “I ❤️ Hongqi!”

Tesla We, Robot came and went. Shares were down 9% and even more after hours. Let’s just say most people weren’t impressed. The vehicle Elon showed off is likely the M2 that they decided not to launch. They just ripped the pedals and steering wheel out.

The event was fairly choreographed. And the surprise was the ROBOVAN unveil. Said ro-BO-vin according to Elon.

Not sure why everyone is fired up about their disappointment. Stans aside. His track record with on-time delivery, at least on the Tesla side hasn’t been good. And there were complaints about it only being a two-seater and I can see that argument but it’s ONE form factor and could have many derivatives.

The practical roadblocks - getting approved to be roadworhty by the US govt. And the Chinese govt. Are they a multi-trillion dollar company if they can only eventually get approval for the cybertaxi in the US? I don’t think they should be. But there would need to likely be some major differences in the US spec vs. the China spec versions. But who knows for now.

One thing that should be noted. Athony Levandowski said Tesla’s lead over Waymo is substantial because of the data advantage and that ports, but there are ways that Waymo can catch up. And I know that John Krafcik would likely disagree with that analysis.

CHINA EVs & MORE

Still working through some challenges, this time with comments and chats. We may narrow down the platforms we livestream from to see if my feed gets better and to try to capture questions and comments better. Thanks for those that have been a part of the initial set of stream. I haven’t asked this of many people, but if you could help us get the word out on the launching of our YouTube channel, that would be AWESOME.

Here’s last week’s episode:

QUOTED / INTERVIEWED

-        Detroit Free Press. Local news is starting to pick up on the China EV Inc phenomenon. I was interviewed for this piece that specifically focuses on BYD on the threat they pose to the Detroit 3. It’s now very clear that Mary, Carlos and Jim know intimately how far behind they are to their Chinese counterparts with Tavares going as far as purchasing a 21% stake in one because he knew he couldn’t beat them on his own.

I was also told that he wanted to acquire a larger stake but was rebuffed. Talk about going ALL-IN. Stellantis is different than GM & Ford though since they’re considered a French company. That doesn’t mean that Chinese IP won’t bleed into American cars, they certainly will. Likely the most affordable cars that Dodge, Chrysler and Fiat will eventually offer. Currently for Mary and Jim, hands are tied.

At least until after the election. For now though, they’ve both had plenty of seat time behind the wheel of Chinese EVs and they’ve both been left impressed and concerned.

Finally, wondering how much seat time in Chinese EVs or time in general the other folks quoted in the article have recently spent in China. Because if they’ve not done either recently, then their views are more theoretical, right?

I also don’t agree with the ‘crowded US market’ argument, that just ignores or doesn’t pay respect to how crowded and competitive the China market is. Maybe they both need to fly over there and check it out for themselves.

Will it take BYD time to gain momentum in the US? But which EVs / PHEVs is she referring to and from which OEMs is she referring to that could compete with BYD right now???

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BY THE NUMBERS

120KWh. That’s the size of the battery on NIO’s soon to be launched flagship, the ET9. Swapping stations get more complicated as friend of SA Insights Claudio Afonso notes that the Gen 3 & 4 stations will need to carry 5-6 sizes to accommodate swaps for all NIO vehicles.

‘275. That’s how many units the Lucid Air outsold the Tesla Model S by in Q3’2024. One of Peter Rawlinson’s goals was to outdo the Model S. One mission accomplished, now they just need to keep that momentum going forward with the Gravity.

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I’ll leave you all with a few fun pics.

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This weekly newsletter is a collection of articles we feel best reflect the happenings of the week or important trends that have effects on the global automotive and mobility sectors. We also provide a point of view that we hope educates and sparks debate.

The Sino Auto Insights team